tfw democracy values is who we are
I don’t talk to gays or women, but I’ve never met a Taiwanese person who thinks “Taiwanese independence” is important. At best, they don’t really care. But most of them are demanding reunification, because this US agenda of independence is costing them money.
Who is going to use these weapons? This isn’t the Ukraine. The people don’t support the US agenda to use them in a war.
The Biden administration sent formal notifications to the US Congress on Friday of the intent to sell radars, anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles to Taiwan. The total value of the equipment and maintenance contracts adds up to just over $1.1 billion.
This is the fifth – and the largest so far – weapons package for Taiwan approved by the current US government. Its most expensive component is a SRP surveillance radar system, valued at $665.4 million, followed by 60 Harpoon anti-ship missiles worth $355 million and 100 Sidewinder anti-aircraft missiles worth $85.6 million. The contracts also include related equipment, parts and maintenance.
The three contracts were green-lit by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency to Congress on Friday, as part of the formal notification process.
Earlier this week, after some US outlets published the leaked details of the sales, China warned the US against such a move. A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, said Beijing would respond with “decisive and firm measures” if the US continues to sell weapons to Taipei.
The other thing here is: the US can’t constantly ship weapons and soldiers into Taiwan in the way they can into the Ukraine. Taiwan is an island which China can easily just blockade.
This agenda in Taiwan makes zero sense, logistically.
But the Pentagon thought the Ukraine was Afghanistan, so I’m not surprised they think Taiwan is the Ukraine.
By the way: I have no idea when this is going to pop off. They took 8 years to start the war with Russia, after firing it up.
But in this situation, China might well make the first move – especially with the US making this big public show. China is not a democracy, and therefore the leadership is accountable to the people, and the people are getting frustrated with the Taiwan situation. Some rich people in China don’t want to rock the ship, but after the Nancy Pelosi invasion, the doves in Beijing can’t keep claiming that the US will eventually see reason.
Xi Jinping is a great populist leader, and has consistently sided with the masses against the old guard elite. There is a big back and forth in China, but after the Pelosi thing, the Taiwan hawks are winning the narrative, and Xi, being a populist, will go along with public opinion, assuming it won’t destroy the country.
So China might at any time just make a move.
It will indeed cost them a lot of money in the short term. The Chinese economic miracle was largely based on exploiting the dollar system. But forcing the US to do to China what they did to Russia would collapse the US empire, and China would win big in the long run.
I’ve said before: if I was an advisor to any world leader, that country would be at war all the time. But in this case, like in the case of the Ukraine, China is getting backed against a wall, and they’re only going to have one move in the long term. It probably makes sense to get it out of the way.
The US is a paper tiger. They thought they could win against Russia, and got completely humiliated.
But I don’t know. These dynamics are complicated, and I don’t claim to understand all of them fully.